Probably Stolen Appraisal: How Item Value Is Actually Decided
Updated · Game version 1.0
Direct answer
In Probably Stolen, the price a buyer will pay for an item is decided by four things long before you name a number: its condition, whether its seal or appraisal certificate is intact, whether the item is genuine or relabelled, and where it came from. Appraisal is the check you run before you price something, not a guess you make afterwards — and every factor you skip comes straight out of your margin.
The four factors, in the order they matter
| Factor | What you actually check | How much it moves the price |
|---|---|---|
| Condition | Surface wear, breaks, and whether the item still works as intended | Judged first, and discounted hardest when the defect is functional rather than cosmetic |
| Seal / certificate | Whether the seal is unbroken and whether the certificate is still valid where it is stored | Decides whether the item can be sold as sealed at all, and whether the certificate is read where it is stored |
| Authenticity | Labelling, print quality, weight, and whether the item was relabelled or cut | Decides whether the item sells at all — a confirmed fake is a loss, not a discount |
| Provenance | Where the item came from and whether that adds or removes buyer interest | Rarely moves the number on its own — it changes how a buyer reacts, not what an honest item is worth |
The five appraisal mistakes that cost the most
- Naming a price before reading the item. The buy queue moves fast, and the asking price on the label is not the price the item is worth. Read first, then talk.
- Treating a certificate as automatic value. A certificate only counts where the game actually reads it. Keep it where it is read.
- Missing a relabel. A relabelled item looks correct until you compare the label to the item it is stuck on. Check alignment before you check anything else.
- Ignoring seals on items you plan to resell. An item you intend to resell is worth less the moment its seal is broken — buying it “cheap” at a broken seal can still be a loss.
- Not writing down what you paid. Appraisal without a record of your buy price is not appraisal, it is vibes. Keep a running note of buy price per item.
What appraisal does not do
- It does not let you see an item’s hidden history. You appraise what is in front of you.
- It does not protect you from a bad deal, only from a misread one — you can still overpay for a genuinely excellent item.
- It does not replace the security and inspection systems in the shop. Those are a separate mechanic.
Where to go next
- Step-by-step procedure — the exact order to check an item, with what to look at and what to skip → how to appraise items
- Certificates and seals — where a certificate actually counts, and why a display window may cancel its value → certificates and seals
- Counterfeit and relabelled items — how to spot a fake before it costs you → counterfeit and relabel
- Condition tiers — the full condition table with price treatment → item condition tiers
Updated with game version 1.0. This page is checked against the live game after every patch — if a value no longer matches what you see in-game, the version line above will tell you whether this page predates the change.